Is. Marshall: entre o alarmismo ambiental e o drama humano

.@BjornLomborg: About those non-disappearing Pacific islands http://on.wsj.com/2e9muiS via @WSJ Este sujeito é ótimo, um desmistificador. A população das Is. Marshall, um arquipélago de atóis no Pacífico Norte tem diminuído e, claro, as vozes ambientalistas se erguem contra o que seriam os efeitos do *Aquecimento Global Antropogênico*, como a elevação do nível dos oceanos e a perda de terra arável, p.ex. Mas é uma delícia quando se recorre às estatísticas e se descobre que:

"Using historic aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite imagery, Auckland University scientists Murray Ford and Paul Kench recently analyzed shoreline changes on six atolls and two mid-ocean reef islands in the Marshall Islands. Their peer-reviewed study, published in the September 2015 issue of Anthropocene, revealed that since the middle of the 20th century the total land area of the islands has actually grown. How is that possible? It seems self-evident that rising sea levels will reduce land area. However, there is a process of accretion, where coral broken up by the waves washes up on these low-lying islands as sand, counteracting the reduction in land mass. Research shows that this process is overpowering the erosion from sea-level rise, leading to net land-area gain."

Mas e a emigração de seus habitantes, como se explica? Ahá! Aqui...

"Representatives from the Marshall Islands have been vocal about the need for strong global action on climate. President Hilda Heine has told reporters that longtime residents are leaving the Marshall Islands because climate change is threatening the nation’s existence. It’s true that approximately one-third of the population has relocated to the U.S.—but for reasons more mundane than climate change. Some 52.7% of the Marshall Islands population lives below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank. Only 39.3% of the population age 15 years and above is employed. In its 2015 human-rights report on the island nation, the U.S. State Department said that significant problems include “chronic government corruption, and chronic domestic violence,” along with “child abuse, sex trafficking, and lack of legal provisions protecting worker’s rights.” Marshallese citizens also have an easy immigration pathway to America and can live, work and study in the U.S. without a visa. It is understandable why Marshall Island leaders might prefer to talk about global warming. But blaming today’s emigration on rising seas does a disservice to all."

Sério, acompanhem ele, se chama Bjørn Lomborg. Seu livro, O Ambientalista Cético é como uma bíblia para mim.